Comments on: Christmas 2009: A snowstorm to remember? Not!

By: Griff Wigley

Griff Wigley — Thu, 11 Feb 2010 14:34:32 +0000

Very helpful, Phil.

I wonder if Carleton’s weather database folks could be recruited into providing snowfall measurements. http://weather.carleton.edu/

How about it, Doug?

By: Phil Poyner

Phil Poyner — Thu, 11 Feb 2010 13:04:47 +0000

Griff, storm totals generally come out as Public Information Statements and can be found here: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/product.php?site=MPX&issuedby=MPX&product=PNS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0 If you skip through a number of the statements you’ll notice totals tend to get updated throughout the storm, and then there will generally be some sort of recap or summary once the event has ended.

Regarding observing sites, most snow total reports come from volunteers, either from the NWS Cooperative Observer Program (COOP) or the Community Collaborative Rain, Hail and Snow Network (CoCoRaHS). The last request for COOP observers was posted on this website: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/mpx/Coop/become.php I believe anyone can volunteer for CoCoRaHs, so no location should be considered “too small”. In fact, CoCoRaHS has training classes this month: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/mpx/CocorahsTraining.pdf People can apply to become CoCoRaHS observers on this website: http://www.cocorahs.org/Application.aspx As far as official aviation reporting sites (those taking METAR observations), the closest ones are at Stanton Field (KSYN) and Faribault (KFBL).

I’m sure this is probably more info than anyone really wanted!

By: Griff Wigley

Griff Wigley — Thu, 11 Feb 2010 00:19:45 +0000

Thanks, Phil. Is there a web site where those stats are regularly posted after a storm?

And is Northfield too small to have an observer?

By: Phil Poyner

Phil Poyner — Wed, 10 Feb 2010 23:09:36 +0000

In case anyone is interested, here are the official storm totals reported to the Chanhassen WFO by their COOP and COCORAHS Observers:

…STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL REPORTS FROM FEBRUARY 7TH-9TH…

SNOW REPORTS LISTED BY AMOUNT.

INCHES LOCATION ST COUNTY TIME
—— ———————-- — ————-- ——-
11.50 9 SW STARBUCK MN POPE 0949 AM
11.00 GLENWOOD MN POPE 0515 PM
11.00 FARIBAULT MN RICE 0800 AM
10.00 ELLENDALE MN STEELE 0645 AM
10.00 NEW MARKET MN SCOTT 0728 PM
9.80 LAKEVILLE MN DAKOTA 0922 AM
9.80 LONG LAKE MN HENNEPIN 0800 AM
9.70 LITCHFIELD MN MEEKER 0800 AM
9.70 1 NNW COLD SPRING MN STEARNS 0800 AM
9.50 MURDOCK MN SWIFT 0812 AM
9.50 3 N KIMBALL MN STEARNS 0800 AM
9.50 3 SE ALBERT LEA MN FREEBORN 0800 AM
9.50 MINNETRISTA MN HENNEPIN 0800 AM
9.50 MEDINA MN HENNEPIN 0755 AM
9.30 2 W PRIOR LAKE MN SCOTT 0400 PM
9.30 BLOOMINGTON MN HENNEPIN 0808 AM
9.00 CARLOS MN DOUGLAS 0812 AM
9.00 3 SSW BURNSVILLE MN DAKOTA 0515 PM
9.10 1 E OWATONNA MN STEELE 0800 AM
8.80 HAMBURG MN CARVER 0800 AM
8.50 1 W HUTCHINSON MN MCLEOD 0800 AM
8.40 RAMSEY MN ANOKA 0922 AM
8.30 WACONIA MN CARVER 0800 AM
8.20 1 SSW JORDAN MN SCOTT 0800 AM
8.10 2 NE BUFFALO MN WRIGHT 0800 AM
8.00 MANKATO MN BLUE EARTH 0932 AM
8.00 WELLS MN FARIBAULT 0800 AM
8.00 FAIRMONT MN MARTIN 0800 AM
8.00 KIESTER MN FARIBAULT 0720 AM
7.80 3 ENE MONTGOMERY MN RICE 0800 AM
7.80 1 SSW LONSDALE MN RICE 0800 AM
7.80 1 SE HENDERSON MN LE SUEUR 0800 AM
7.50 RENVILLE MN RENVILLE 0828 AM
7.50 EDINA MN HENNEPIN 0934 AM
7.50 WINNEBAGO MN FARIBAULT 0800 AM
7.50 WATERTOWN MN CARVER 0743 AM
7.30 NEW HOPE MN HENNEPIN 0638 AM
7.00 DASSEL MN MEEKER 0800 AM
7.00 1 W CARVER MN CARVER 0800 AM
7.00 3 ENE SILVER CREEK MN WRIGHT 0414 PM
6.80 ALBANY MN STEARNS 0452 AM
6.70 WOODBURY MN WASHINGTON 1039 AM
6.70 5 NW MINNEAPOLIS MN HENNEPIN 0800 AM
6.60 ST PETER MN NICOLLET 0800 AM
6.50 SAUK RAPIDS MN BENTON 0713 AM
6.50 RAMSEY MN ANOKA 0607 PM
6.40 FRIDLEY MN ANOKA 0848 AM
6.40 MORRIS MN STEVENS 0800 AM
6.20 ST CLOUD SCSU MN STEARNS 0800 AM
6.20 NORTH ST PAUL MN RAMSEY 0842 AM
6.00 MORGAN MN REDWOOD 0800 AM
6.00 BLUE EARTH MN FARIBAULT 0800 AM
5.60 MINNEAPOLIS ST PAUL APT MN HENNEPIN 0600 AM
5.50 SLEEPY EYE MN BROWN 0849 AM
5.50 MELROSE MN STEARNS 0800 AM
5.50 5 W ST CLOUD MN STEARNS 0800 AM
5.50 RED WING MN GOODHUE 0743 AM
5.50 LITTLE FALLS MN MORRISON 0650 AM
5.40 RICHFIELD MN HENNEPIN 0745 AM
5.10 4 SE RED WING MN GOODHUE 0800 AM
5.00 HASTINGS MN DAKOTA 0742 AM
5.00 ST CLOUD MN STEARNS 0600 AM
4.50 ELK RIVER MN SHERBURNE 0800 AM
4.50 3 WSW PRINCETON MN SHERBURNE 0800 AM
4.50 2 SSW CAMBRIDGE MN ISANTI 0629 AM
4.20 REDWOOD FALLS MN REDWOOD 0800 AM
4.20 MILACA MN MILLE LACS 0800 AM
4.20 LONG PRAIRIE MN TODD 0800 AM
4.00 3 ESE LAKE ELMO MN WASHINGTON 0800 AM
4.00 1 N ANDOVER MN ANOKA 0800 AM
4.00 2 NNW COON RAPIDS MN ANOKA 0600 PM
3.80 1 NW COTTAGE GROVE MN WASHINGTON 0800 AM
3.50 1 ESE MILROY MN REDWOOD 0800 AM
3.00 DURAND WI PEPIN 0800 AM
2.80 7 NNW OGILVIE MN KANABEC 1111 AM
2.00 BALDWIN WI ST. CROIX 0800 AM
1.80 1 NE LAKELAND SHORES MN WASHINGTON 0800 AM
1.60 3 NE RUSH CITY MN CHISAGO 0800 AM
1.40 CHIPPEWA FALLS WI CHIPPEWA 0800 AM
1.40 AUGUSTA WI EAU CLAIRE 0800 AM
1.10 STANLEY WI CHIPPEWA 0800 AM
1.10 EAU CLAIRE WI EAU CLAIRE 0600 AM
1.00 CUMBERLAND WI BARRON 0800 AM
1.00 BLOOMER WI CHIPPEWA 0800 AM

By: Griff Wigley

Griff Wigley — Wed, 10 Feb 2010 22:21:29 +0000

We got 10 inches, as much as anyone? All’s forgiven!
http://minnesota.publicradio.org/collections/special/columns/updraft/archive/2010/02/unusual_winter_storm_winds_dow.shtml

By: Griff Wigley

Griff Wigley — Wed, 10 Feb 2010 16:21:17 +0000

Thanks, Phil. I’m now glad I didn’t text this to NOAA:

QUIT SHOUTING ALL THE TIME WITH YOUR ALL CAPS!

By: Phil Poyner

Phil Poyner — Tue, 09 Feb 2010 14:01:34 +0000

Just to settle a question posed above, some information on why NOAA uses all caps in their bulletins (from the Seattle WFO):

“This practice goes back many, many years and relates to international requirements for message dissemination. Some of our international partners still use low-tech dissemination technology which requires the continued use of ALL CAPS. Since the U.S. is an international member of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), we follow those guidelines that still exist for the benefit of all nations. That is why TAFs, AIREPs, Marine Forecasts, etc. are typed in ALL CAPS.”

By: Patrick Enders

Patrick Enders — Mon, 08 Feb 2010 15:07:08 +0000

I’m glad to see Bob’s keeping a tally. What’d really be fun would be to keep a record of the total amount of snow predicted by various news agencies over the season, compared to how much snow actually falls.

And Griff, what did the Vikings do to you that they haven’t done a dozen times before?

By: Griff Wigley

Griff Wigley — Mon, 08 Feb 2010 12:46:38 +0000

Just remember what the Vikings did to us, Patrick.

Bob Collins at MPR is trying to hold the meteorologists accountable:
http://minnesota.publicradio.org/collections/special/columns/news_cut/archive/2010/02/sundgaard_takes_golden_snowbal.shtml

By: Patrick Enders

Patrick Enders — Sun, 07 Feb 2010 15:26:47 +0000

Griff,
Better start booking those therapy sessions again. According to the Strib:

Time to batten down — again. As much as 14 inches of snow could fall across the Twin Cities and the rest of Minnesota thanks to a storm that begins Sunday and and extend into Tuesday morning.

http://www.startribune.com/local/83716762.html

By: Griff Wigley

Griff Wigley — Wed, 06 Jan 2010 02:39:26 +0000

Kathie, we got our 8 inches snow on the 23rd, a decent but plain vanilla snowfall. Thereafter, they kept predicting 1-2 more feet on Xmas eve and Xmas day. It never materialized. Note this line in an article about the stubborn ice on streets and sidewalks in today's Strib:

Though the Twin Cities received far less snow than had been predicted -- 7.2 inches on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day --

I'm almost over it emotionally. Almost.

By: norman butler

norman butler — Sat, 26 Dec 2009 16:10:33 +0000

Meteorology, astrology, climatology all should be taken as seriously as the accuracy of their predictions; and no weather forecaster should be vilified or expected to apologies when they get it wrong.

There are sciences, arts and ologies and we are all experts in the latter disciplines.

By: Susan Hvistendahl

Susan Hvistendahl — Sat, 26 Dec 2009 15:26:57 +0000

Sun’s out. Take a quick look at it before the flurries the weathercasters predicted blot it out.

By: Kathie Galotti

Kathie Galotti — Sat, 26 Dec 2009 15:06:38 +0000

In fairness, we did get the 8-12 inches forecase, no?

By: Griff Wigley

Griff Wigley — Sat, 26 Dec 2009 14:03:33 +0000

I've added the word 'not' to the blog post title. And here are two photos of our cardboard sledding extravaganza.

By: Merry Christmas! « Locally Grown Northfield

Merry Christmas! « Locally Grown Northfield — Sat, 26 Dec 2009 06:05:57 +0000

[...] Christmas! By Griff Wigley, on December 25th, 2009 With my extreme disappointment over the predicted snowstorm that failed to materialize, I tried to find something to post before midnight on Xmas that would reflect the spirit of the [...]

By: Griff Wigley

Griff Wigley — Sat, 26 Dec 2009 04:24:57 +0000

Why didn’t any of these weather forecasters say something like

There’s a 50-50 chance that the milder air will get drawn into the area turning snow to mush and so if you’re planning to XC ski or snowshoe your plans might be ruined so you better have a back-up plan like going sledding only don’t forget to get something to go sledding with as you may have sold all your sleds and saucers and toboggans when you sold your old house when the kids moved out and you don’t want to be reduced to taking cardboard out of the dumpster at Cub Foods just to have something to go sledding with.

Now that would have been a helpful forecast.

By: Patrick Enders

Patrick Enders — Sat, 26 Dec 2009 02:05:02 +0000

Weather people always oversell the worst-case scenario of a storm. Sure, a few people are upset if the snow isn’t as deep as promised. However, if you want to see a truly angry mob, tell everyone that travel will probably be fine, and leave them all stranded in a wayside motel somewhere.

Actually, that might be a very good way to get rid of an angry mob.

By: Griff Wigley

Griff Wigley — Fri, 25 Dec 2009 23:57:26 +0000

If we get decent snow yet from the wrap-around as the system departs, Kathie, I’ll happily come over to help you shovel.

By: Kathie Galotti

Kathie Galotti — Fri, 25 Dec 2009 22:07:44 +0000

Um, well, actually, I got all the snow I needed for Christmas!! And more!! Sorry you missed your 2 feet plus, Griff, but I’m sick of shoveling!

By: Griff Wigley

Griff Wigley — Fri, 25 Dec 2009 21:53:20 +0000

This failed snowstorm has to rank among the top ten all-time blown storms predictions. And now comes the ass-covering spin:

MPR's Craig Edwards at 7 am:

Watching many things in the weather lab overnight, but two things jump out that explain the lower snowfall totals. First, milder air, a concern all along, was drawn into this large circulation from the east and south of MInnesota.

Paul Douglas at 2 pm:

As we suspected a few days ago, the storm is inhaling dry, desert air into its circulation, causing the snow/ice to taper off from the Twin Cities on south/east.

Huh? I could be wrong but I don't remember anyone saying something to the effect that "there's a 50-50 chance this storm won't materialize because..."

Here are my predictions:

1: no meterologist will publicly explain how they screwed up

2: the Vikings will do to us what this storm did.

By: john george

john george — Fri, 25 Dec 2009 20:45:38 +0000

Griff- Too bad you are not in Grand Forks if you want snow. There must be 8-10″ of new snow in the streets and it is still coming down, or I ahould say blowing past. Interstate 29 is closed down through Fargo, and no travel is advised on the farm to market roads. No wonder most of the vehicles you see up here are some type of FWD. A good JD 8650 tractor is probably the vehicle of choice for traveling today.

By: Griff Wigley

Griff Wigley — Fri, 25 Dec 2009 13:40:25 +0000

Dang. No snow last night. In fact, yesterday was pretty much a disappointment, IMHO. And now Northfield's been downgraded to a 'winter weather advisory' (complete 7:07 am NWS email below).

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF A RICE LAKE...TO LAKEVILLE...TO OWATONNA LINE. EAST AND SOUTH OF THE WARNING AREA...INCLUDING THE LADYSMITH...EAU CLAIRE...AND RED WING AREAS...THE WARNING HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

"Twin Cities snowstorms are a little like the Vikings. They get our hopes up so high, only to be disappointed in the end." - Amy Carlson-Gustafson, St. Paul Pioneer Press, as quoted by Paul Douglas in this blog post.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 705 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2009

...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN CONTINUES...

...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW DOWNGRADED TO AN ADVISORY ACROSS A PORTION OF WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...

.A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND EXTREME EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS CHRISTMAS MORNING. THIS MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AS FAR WEST AS THE CAMBRIDGE...TWIN CITIES...MANKATO...AND FAIRMONT AREAS. THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA SHOULD SEE MAINLY SNOW TODAY. A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF A RICE LAKE...TO LAKEVILLE...TO OWATONNA LINE. EAST AND SOUTH OF THE WARNING AREA...INCLUDING THE LADYSMITH...EAU CLAIRE...AND RED WING AREAS...THE WARNING HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT IN THE WARNING AREA OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA WILL RANGE FROM 3 TO 9 INCHES. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE ADVISORY AREA OVER WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN WILL RANGE BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES.

BY SATURDAY MORNING...THREE DAY STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 8 TO 16 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS APPROACHING 18 INCHES. AMOUNTS WILL BE LESSER TOWARD THE ALBERT LEA...LADYSMITH...MENOMONIE...AND EAU CLAIRE AREAS...WHERE STORM TOTALS IN THE 3 TO 8 INCH RANGE ARE EXPECTED.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTH NORTHEAST AT 15 TO 25 MPH THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND TURN MORE NORTH NORTHWESTERLY TODAY AS THE CENTER OF THE STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES. BLOWING SNOW IS MOST PROBABLE IN WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA THROUGH CHRISTMAS NIGHT. ISANTI-CHISAGO-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-CARVER-SCOTT- DAKOTA-LE SUEUR-RICE-WASECA-STEELE-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-ST. CROIX- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CAMBRIDGE...CENTER CITY...MINNEAPOLIS... BLAINE...ST. PAUL...STILLWATER...CHASKA...SHAKOPEE...BURNSVILLE... LE SUEUR...FARIBAULT...WASECA...OWATONNA...ALBERT LEA...AMERY... BALSAM LAKE...RICE LAKE...BARRON...HUDSON...NEW RICHMOND 705 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2009

...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT...

THE WINTER STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT.

* TIMING...A MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...WITH A TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW EXPECTED TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON.

* ACCUMULATIONS...ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF TWO TO FIVE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING...INCLUDING ALONG THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR. BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE THREE DAY PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 8 TO 14 INCHES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT... FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

By: Kathie Galotti

Kathie Galotti — Fri, 25 Dec 2009 04:15:18 +0000

Well, Griff, looks like you’re getting a Christmas wish. If this keeps up we will have to shovel a path out of our 2nd story window….Glad to hear that someone really is enjoying this--happy holidays!

By: Griff Wigley

Griff Wigley — Thu, 24 Dec 2009 21:28:12 +0000

Penny, you’re a lot closer than me on the snowfall total last night. Paul Huttner says we got 7.5 inches:
http://minnesota.publicradio.org/collections/special/columns/updraft/archive/2009/12/storm_update_next_wave_moving.shtml