The [unofficial] results are in: Dahle 55.15%, Cox 42.37%, Norgaard 2.4%.
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132 comments to Kevin Dahle, Our New State Senator |
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Copyright © 2012 Locally Grown Northfield - All Rights Reserved 
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Wow. I thought Cox was a shoo-in. What explains the fairly large margin of victory for Dahle?
I was surprised, too, Bill — I expected Cox to win, though by a modest margin.
My impression was that he was shooting further right with his campaign than he has with his House campaigns; at least that’s what I’ve gotten from the mailings I’ve received and the some of his comments during the Locally Grown debate. Maybe the district — Northfield especially — was simply not interested in some of those positions.
I could be wrong there, but I honestly don’t know what else it could be. He’s well-liked and has better name recognition than Kevin Dahle.
But now, to put a smile on. It’s been a while since a candidate I supported won.
Yea, Kevin! What resounding support for what you stand for now and what you’ve always represented as an educator, friend, and concerned citizen. I look forward, as does all of our family, to your voice in our State government. Best to you, Beth, and your family as you begin this new journey.
My friends and I were just talking about that; we suggested that perhaps it was that very mentality that Cox was a shoo-in that created apathy among the conservative vote and gave the vote to the DFL. Who knows: this whole scenario seemed really unlikely with the large margin of victory for Kevin.
ohmygod! It’s been SO long since a candidate I’ve voted for won!!!! Way to go, Senator Dahle! This makes may day, my week, my month, my year!!!
I s’pose there won’t be a recount.
They’re kind of exciting, you know. And they give Northfield some good, non-controversial publicity (which is better than the controversial kind: teen drug-use stats, city hall, etc.).
Mabye we can shoot for a closer one next time?
Strib: DFLer Dahle wins state Senate seat
I took the photo on the left of Kevin Dahle at about 8:30 PM at Froggy Bottoms, and on the right of Ray Cox and Tom Neuville at about 8:45 PM at Ray’s house:
Gabriel wrote,
“…this whole scenario seemed really unlikely with the large margin of victory for Kevin.”
Judging by lawn-signs alone, you’d have thought Ray was going to have a slam-dunk.
Republican conspiracy-theorists may wonder:
Did some DFL-leaning election judges see to it that all the most disfunctional ballot-counting machines were placed in the Republican-leaning precincts?
Just like the Republicans did in Ohio?
Maybe the ‘publicans should contest this, call for a recount and investigation?
Congrats once again to Kevin!! He does an amazing job at the HS and will do an amazing job in St. Paul. I think Gabe hit the nail on the head when he mentioned apathy among the Republican voters. I also believe that Cox’s platform stressing his experience was one that did not satisfy voters as many are upset over the past years. Yes he has experience, but look what has happened while he was in office. The nail in the coffin had to be Pawlenty coming down to show his support-thanks Tim!
Nfld News: Dahle wins election with Northfield landslide.
Hmmm. That article’s timestamp shows 8:02 pm. How did Ariel Emery know that soon?!!
It is a FINE morning. Congratulations Mr. Dahle.
Now that the DFL has a 2/3 majority in the senate, lets get some things done!
I think folks just got tired of Cox’s “in your face” / arrogant/vote for me or else campaigning. He touted himself as a “green candidate” but filled our mailboxes with 2 or 3 glossy ads PER DAY! Dahle is in -- WATCH YOUR WALLET! I’m sure that the proposed .10 per gallon gas tax just got another vote not to mention numerous other new taxes/entitlement spending. Hopefully, the I-R’s will come up with a better candidate the next time(s) around so that Bly and Dahle can return to their teaching duties.
Congratulations to Kevin Dahle, and best wishes for a very successful term as state senator!
I really liked what he had to say at the candidate debate, and I was proud to vote for him, but I have to admit that all the Pro-Cox talk (from Democrats!) here, and all those lawn signs, made me feel that I was only making a symbolic gesture with my vote.
Northfield continues to be a very surprising town.
What wonderful news! I expected the rest of the district to overwhelm any Democratic Northfield bump. Any maps available of voting results? And when was the last time this seat was held by a Democrat?
Loads of Carleton students voting on the first day of classes, walking right past the large red pick-up with plastered with Ray Cox signs parked all day practically across the street from the polling place.
I think there are several reasons for the DFL win.
I think Democrats in general are more excited, more angry at Bush and more united in defeating Republicans in any race. Having the election on Iowa caucus night, when wall-to-wall media coverage of a record-breaking number of Democrats turned out, certainly gave DFL-ers a shot of adrenaline and a reminder to vote.
I think Pawlenty’s timing of the special election seemed such a blatant political move that many people were insulted and enraged. Ray having his campaign materials ready when the announcement was made fueled the feeling of a conspiracy, and God knows people here love to feel they’re fighting evil conspiracies. And my guess is that already eager college voters took it as a personal challenge.
I think many people weren’t voting against Cox, but were determined to control Pawlenty by giving taking away the Republican super-majority.
I think Ray as an individual is a wonderful guy, but there was a sense of Pawlenty trying to shove him down everyone’s throats.
I’m sure Ray never will live down the construction work he did at the newspaper just before an earlier election. It may have meant nothing, but the timing of the job added to the feeling Ray was being forced on the public by an organized power structure.
Congratulations to Kevin Dahle, and best wishes for a wise and successful term as state senator!
Northfield continues to be a very surprising place.
Interesting. A review of the precinct by precinct voting shows that it wasn’t just students who put Dahle over the top. Dahle won by large margins in every precinct in Northfield, as well as taking Dundas and Bridgewater.
I was watching the Sec of State’s website last night and as of 10:15 all of the precincts except for Northfield’s had reported in. (BTW, what’s up with that?) Cox was ahead by several hundred votes. Northfield’s votes made the difference, obviously.
Over Christmas break, I talked with several Northfield High School grads, now in college, and a couple of current NHS students. They unanimously agreed that Dahle is a great teacher, and a great guy. My son, Nick, thinks that probably half of NHS grads have had Dahle for a teacher. That translates to a lot of face-to-face parent/teacher conferences.
I speculate that years of great work in the classroom translated into votes for Mr. Dahle. Ultimately, that work trumped door knocking/lawns signs/mailings, etc.
Well said, Anne! I believe there is an anti-Republican sentiment nationwide because of Bush.
The many, annoying phone calls from the Republican party urging people to vote in this election I do not believe helped their cause either. No one likes to feel pressured or manipulated.
I also believe that many in Northfield have experienced the negative effects of school budget cuts. Though Dahle is only one voice (though now aligned with a Democratic majority in the state senate), voters could be sure he will make our schools a priority.
It was not only college students voting for Dahle.
I think a big part of Kevin’s votes were from the 18-19 year old high schoolers, and college age students hanging around Northfield still, whom all had him as a teacher at the nhs. I never went to the hs, so I only know him from drivers ed. In which I learned more about the Andy Griffith show than driving laws…. Is he still the president of that club, does anyone know?
Hey Triumvirate -- the next election is suddenly coming up very quickly. I’m certainly interested in hearing what my fellow citizens think. It’s not a strictly Northfield issue, but it will certainly affect Northfielders. What about a board for that one?
The Nf stats were amazing. They also showed one of the problems NF faces which is the needed redistricting of the wards/precincts.
It is very difficult to construct the wards so that they fulfill the legal requirements for their “equality”; the three considerations are: equal numbers of residents/voters, contiguity, and “communities of interest”.
When NF was last redistricted there was extreme gerrymandering of the 4th Ward. At a council work session, it was stated that by constructing the boundaries as they exist today, two seated councilpersons would be able to retain their seats. (No “conspiracy; just a council vote)
The result is that the 2 precincts of ward 4 are fairly equal in numbers, BUT have NO contiguity (witness the line running down highway 3 with not a single residence along it) and if you look at the voting patterns, they do not seem to be “communities of interest”.
That said, I think the “communities of interest” requirement is one that is very problematic; it could be interpreted as being a very possibly prejudicial assumption in the determination of that evaluation. (Sorry, didn’t say that well, but I think you get the point). But looking at the votes from precinct 1 of ward 4, compared to those of precinct 2 , you can see a
huge difference in the voting preferences. Does that show…. ? Well, what does that show?
Statisticians, please weigh in here.. Bruce, are you out there? Am I remembering correctly that you, Felicity, are a statistician?
I think this is a fascinating question , and has real ramifications for the 4th Ward ever electing a candidate which represents both precincts satisfactorily
Kevin won because he is a great educator, articulate, kind and well respected. If you saw the debate it was obvious that Kevin was well schooled on the issues.
Didn’t Cox lose against Bly, in the most recent election cycle? In that race he had alot of signs and letters to the editor as well. But as Edwards said last night-- the people decide, it doesn’t matter how much people spend or out spend. The people decide! Plus, from my perspective, these Republicans who try to say they are “moderate” and then vote with the party almost always, aren’t sneaking through. (Watch Coleman try to act like he is a moderate..)
We the people!
Wellstone would be proud! Finally, grass roots politics seems to be taking hold. Sitting in Prof. Wellstones “Grass roots organizing” class in 1985 I thought much of it was a dream or thoughts of dreamers. But the internet really seems to be bringing many of those ideas and strategies to fruition.
Congratulations Kevin!
MPR: DFLer Dahle wins special legislative election.
Did student votes in Northfield determine the election?
Not likely, in my opinion.
A back-of-the-envelope calculation shows that in the Northfield wards with significant campus overlap (W1P1, W1P2, W3P1, W4P1) the total vote went about 400 for Ray and 1475 for Kevin. That’s a big margin — but not even close to the 1600-vote margin for the total election. These wards also include many, many non-student voters.
So, almost certainly, the result would have been the same even if *no* student had voted.
My best guess is that the election result occurred not because of nasty bloggers, questionable endorsements, push-polling, glossy ads, or other campaigning peculiarities. Seems to me we had two good, credible, well-liked, and locally well-known candidates. But they have different party affiliations, and in present political circumstances and in this district, Republicans have to swim against the current.
kiffi-
ward 4 precinct 1; 75% Dahle
ward 4 precinct 2: 65% Dahle
That doesn’t seem like a huge difference in voter preference.
Seems like all the ‘suburban’ areas of Northfield went for Dahle at strong levels. And he carried the liberal bastions of Shieldsville, Northfield township, Erin township, Bridgewater township, Dundas and tied in Wheeling township. Something going on here that’s for sure.
Now THIS is how an election should look in this district. It’s consistent with the index, and as the prior commentor noticed: “My best guess is that the election result occurred not because of nasty bloggers, questionable endorsements, push-polling, glossy ads, or other campaigning peculiarities.” I’d say it had a lot to do with the ABSENCE of these things (except for all of Ray’s glossy ads, and it’ll be interesting to see how much personal money he put into his campaign because in a prior House campaign, he’d loaned his campaign over $8k, which is $3k over the House limit, and wasn’t called on it). There wasn’t the Republican push-polling this time, there were no Sviggum-directed dirty press conferences in the dump and no baseless threats of felony prosecution for serving pie, instead it was a CAMPAIGN. Dahle had to make a name for himself and get the word out about his and his party’s positions, Ray had the disadvantage of having a prior voting record that spoke volumes about how he’d perform. This is a satisfying result. Now the big question is whether the DFL will act, or whether they’ll cave as they have in Washington. Given the House last session, and given the lack of leadership and the participation of the DFL in wrongheaded policy, hand in hand with our chameleon-”green” governor, particularly on energy issues, I’m not too hopeful, but will be there prodding anyway. It’s a world where DFL House Energy Chair called me in to tell me “we need more coal” and where Sen. Ellen Anderson champions Energy Omnious bill after Energy Omnious bill that facilitates transmission lines and more coal, oh, and maybe a little wind. It’s going to take a big consistent push to turn this battleship around. Maybe this is a sign???
Paul’s right. The much worried about student vote was only incidental to the margin. It is interesting that only 41 of ~300 votes at Carleton were for Ray, which in my mind is indicative of the fact that Northfield is sooooo out of touch with the rural voters (the margin was reasonably close without the Northfield vote). I’ve long been claiming that Bridgewater’s undertaking of planning and zoning represented a long simmering frustration with a remote urban-oriented county’s poor managing of the rural needs, now it looks like I can add Northfield to that list of remote and disconnected entities (don’t even get me started on how remote and disconnected the state and federal arms are). Oh well.
Curt asked why Northfield was the last set of precincts to report in. At the Cox residence we knew the results in the Northfield area long before they were posted. Apparently Northfield does not want anyone to forget that Northfield rules this part of the country, and we rural types ought to be more attentive to our place, that is, we better just sit down and shut up. By waiting until all other results were in, then almost casually, but certainly arrogantly, showing up with their votes and essentially saying to the rest of us “oh, why did you even bother, you little peasants”, the city continues its tradition. (Cautionary caveat, I’ve just read Mari Sandoz’s “Life of Crazy Horse” and I totally empathize with his struggle to protect a way of life that simply was not important to the hordes from the east.)
Kiffi,
I’m not a statistician, but yes, I am married to one.
District gerrymandering is a fine tradition dating back nearly to the beginning of modern democracy.
One common goal for the group in control of the gerrymander is to build districts in which your side can expect to win lots of districts with 52% or so of the votes, while concentrating as many of your opponents’ voters as possible into districts where they will win a smaller number of seats, but will win each of those seats by (ideally) margins of 90% to 10%.
Unfortunately, concentrating groups of voters is sometimes cynically defended as creating “communities of interest.”
Redistricting is an incredibly complex area both of politics and of statistical science. There’s a whole branch of statistics devoted to understanding geographic data (like voter rolls) that can and undoubtedly is used to draw districting maps. There is also a large body of law on the matter of districting that says what can and can’t be done. But all of that is well outside my areas of expertise.
However, it’s very hard to know what’s the right way to draw districts. No matter how you draw then, some interests will have their influence increased, and others will have their influence diminished. My personal first instinct would be to turn it over to a computer with simple arbitrary rules, and let the chips fall where they may. I would think the rules for such a plan would favor geographic contiguity and compactness and little else. However, such districts would potentially shift radically with each census, as populations move and neighborhoods are built. Also, what does “compact” mean? Do you want to consider geographic obstacles like rivers, or man-made ones, like highways, when considering where to divide districts? “The other side of the tracks” may well separate “communities of interest” from each other.
My point is, redistricting is one of the most important, and least well-delineated, processes in our democracy. Thus far, the principle in this country has been based on letting the majority rule. If one party takes it too far one way, at some later date, it is hoped that the other party will get a chance to rewrite it.
The 2000 census redistricting is a case in point. The Republicans controlled that process in a majority of states, and they carefully constructed a minimum number of “very safe” Democratic districts, and a maximum number of Republican “pretty safe” seats. It was great for 2004, and it was part of the foundation of the promised “permanent Republican majority” that we heard a lot about just a few years ago. Unfortunately for them, a small-but-generalized shift away from the Republican party in the last few years turned a lot of those “pretty safe” Republican seats into a large number of “up for grabs” or even Democratic-leaning districts. And thus, the Republicans lost a lot of House seats in 2006, and are widely expected to lose even more in 2008.
The art and science of drawing district lines would be a great topic for Politics and a Pint, if anyone’s up to the task. I, for one, have no idea what the right answer is.
Bruce,
Were you serious (in posting #29) about attributing the relatively late appearance of Northfield voting results to arrogance, elitism, dissing the “peasants”, etc.?
Perhaps such “city” attitudes exist (as do, presumably, “country” attitudes about godless, libertine liberals here in Rice County’s Gomorrah), but I need a little more evidence than the order of posting of election results. Could it instead have something to do with the larger voting numbers in Northfield precincts? Or a malice-less glitch of some type?
William of Ockham (the 14th century Razor guy, but not a slasher) must be turning in his grave.
Yes, Paul and Bruce are right above, the students weren’t a big part of this win, though of course like every voter, they contributed to itl Special elections are atypical, and only those who feel strongly about the single race at issue will turn out.
I’ve just run through the results, by County and by Pct., and what stands out is Ray lost every precinct in Northfield, even those that were traditionally “Ray’s” in past races, that applies to Northfield, but also take a look at the townships in 25B, Shieldsville, Wheeling and Bridgewater. Bridgewater was a Ray stronghold, and he lost big-time. He didn’t do at all well in 25B, which points to dissatisfaction, probably from varying perspectives, in his performance as Representative. Norgaard’s votes could have made a difference if they all would have been Ray voters, but as Ralph Nader notes, third parties take from both R’s and D’s. And it’s good Norgaard was in the mix, though he probably didn’t have the resources to mount a fast and furious campaign. The third voice brings in issues and perspectives that aren’t usually present, keeps everyone on their toes, and perhaps a little more honest.
Seems a pretty good campaign and election all the way around. The campaign finance reports, when they appear, will make it even more interesting.
The conspiracy theory types who believe that the election was timed to minimize student votes might want to consider another element: Maybe the black helicopter boys “out geniused” themselves on this one. There were a lot of college students still home on break on election day. These were local kids, personally educated by Dahle. A lot of colleges don’t start up again for a couple of weeks. Were they a factor???
Just a whimsical remark of course…..
Along the whimisical remarks line, Carol, you’ll appreciate this one. Several months ago I googled “Occam’s razor” and the Google context-specific ads came up with this.
I keep in on my desktop and call it “Occam’s Norelco.” (Click the photo for an actual definition for “Occam’s Razor”)
Curt -- That ‘s a point, not just whimsical! I’d guess that it is a factor here, particularly the legions of Northfield parents who have dealt with Dahle as he dealt with their kids, the votes reflecting their impression of his character and values!
I concur with many of the comments about Pawlenty’s support for Cox. This was a calculated election by the Republicans thinking Cox was a slam-dunk in this district hence nominating Neville for the judgeship. It certainly backfired on them. But let’s give Northfielders credit for seeing thru this smokescreen and recognizing that Pawlenty only wanted Cox in the Senate to thwart any attempt of a veto. Cox championed himself as a bi-partisan, independent representative but everyone recognized he was solidly in Pawlenty’s back pocket. The correct and “only” choice was Kevin Dahle, and he will represent us well. Congrats!
Thank you, Patrick , for a lot of in-depth thoughts about the creation of voting districts; it IS a fascinating subject, to my mind… and I know it was to the mathematicians that helped the League of Women Voters with the redistricting of Rice County court case, a few years ago.
I’d like to hear more of your thoughts on the “communities of interest” issue; I consider that very problematic, and would be interested to know a historic perspective of how that qualification originated.
You’re oh , so right, about this being a good subject for Norm’s Politics and a Pint…. why don’t you propose it to him, and offer to lead the discussion?
I think you are right, Paul Z., the election was won by Dahle and his volunteers, and not by bloggers, etc.
I think today’s political issues are driving the dem vote.
Carol, this election showed that Cox lost the last election, too, and that Dems are even more determined.
Also, along the lines of the landslide: Northfielders vote, and rural people most likely didn’t have a personal connection with any of the candidates, and this was a SpecElect. Traditionally, only certain people vote.
I noticed that Ward 2-2 voted heavily Dem. That is true with tradition, and good to see. My parent’s lived in 2-2 and it heavy Dem, and then it was Rep. for a while. Last House election it went Dem, if I am not mistaken. SO, it says something about the new builds out past Jefferson.
Bruce,
Yikes. Is that your ax grinding, or are you just unhappy to see this result?
Isn’t it safer to assume that Northfield’s results were last to report because of the much higher vote count? Opposed to, say, Dennison, where 4 votes were cast? This might be especially true if city election officials decided to submit results as a group -- one time, rather than individually by precinct. I don’t know if that’s their process, but it seems to me to be one way they might operate.
I think your characterization of Northfield as “arrogantly” telling rural voters to “sit down and shut up” denigrates all voters and election officials of Northfield, and reflects only your bias, not reality. You’re usually so much more reasonable and thoughtful than that.
As for Northfield being “sooooo out of touch with the rural voters”, isn’t that also accurately expressed as rural voters being sooooo out of touch with Northfield? Or does your ax only cut one way?
Wm. S. post # 27… I’ll have to go back and look at the precinct tallies; maybe I remembered them incorrectly as it was early this AM, after a late night , and I hadn’t even finished my FIRST cup of tea….
I was recalling about a 50% point spread , Dahle over Cox in Ward 4 pct. 1; and about a 30+ % point spread in Ward 4 pct. 2……. that seemed a significant difference …. Maybe I was wrong?
I have to admit that my son’s comments about Kevin Dahle influenced my voting decision. He said that Mr. Dahle was one of the best teachers in the school, not because he was “easy,” but because he “made you learn.”
At conferences I sometimes questioned his dry sense of humor, but I also knew he was dedicated to teaching and doing his job well. He was not there to impress the parents but to teach the kids.
In that way, I have faith that Dahle will have the same dedication to his job as senator. Yes, his character and values were an important part of my decision as they are for all I choose to vote for.
I am a little miffed at the name calling that has gone on in the blogs on this site. I hear that votes for Dahle were from either citizens who have no investment in this community (ie. St. Olaf and Carleton students and students home from college) or are out of touch with the “rural types.” I have to say that I do not fall into either of those categories, and neither do I consider myself a liberal.
Frankly, it is actually interesting to me that many of the rural communities voted Republican being the Democratic party is traditionally known as the farm labor party. It is also very interesting that areas that supported Cox in the past did not do so this time around.
Now, if Dems could just get 2/3rds in the House, too. Veto override!
Paul, my suggestion that Northfield plays with the timing of its presenting of its votes was based on a pre-event prediction that Northfield’s votes would appear about 15 minutes after the last of the non-Northfield groups were on-line. Although the observed sample size is 1, the prior was based on several past elections. When the prediction proved accurate (with respect to timing, +/- 5 minutes), the posterior probability on the belief that Northfield deliberately delays its report was increased (standard Bayesian analysis).
Brendon, normally your conclusion is exactly the one I would normally push (being the sort who likes to assume the best intentions of others are the explanation), but in this case the voting information was apparently available long before the Northfield results showed up. In the days of paper counts, your observation would have been easy to justify. But, before I get all conspiracy-theoried up, I should consider the possibility that Northfield is simply trying to ensure that other polling stations aren’t able to use the partial results to determine whether they need to gin up a few more votes. For my part, I don’t understand why the state web site, the media, or anyone else ought to be able to report partial results. Doing so (after the polls close) serves no newsworthy purpose and only makes it easier for someone to game of the system. One person’s reasonable decision (to hold results until everyone else is done) is another person’s conspiracy theory.
Thanks for the complement though, you are both right, I am usually more reserved in my comments, and I expect to be so again soon. I did have a personal stake in that I have had many good conversations with Ray about how to make the sorts of environmentally friendly planning commission moves that I feel are important for this area and that I see the cities (including Northfield) ignoring, and I will miss those conversations.
axe (well ground)
Sorry, [bury]that axe[/bury]
Bruce,
As usual, your analysis is well-informed. I simply thought your conclusions (comment #29) were rather personal and global given the evidence before you.
After all, the actual, final reporting of the results probably comes down to the decision or efficiency of one election official (my guess), and ascribing arrogance and dismissiveness to all of Northfield seemed like quite a reach for anyone, especially a statistician, to make.
I hope Ray stays involved in politics. His is a valuable voice. It would be good for you to start having some of conversation with Kevin Dahle, too.
And is it “ax” or “axe”? Such a short word, but I go back and forth on the spelling.
All my best,
Brendon
Oops, that should be “your conversations” in my post #46…
Yes, good idea, Brenden. It’s always good to talk with your Representative or Senator.
I think the short campaign season had a significant impact. IMHO, it was a change I liked & would like to see more often.
Also, I have been disgusted with all the campaign materials sent by/for Ray in the past. Too too much.
Also, I HATE Pawlenty! I went through a lawsuit where he was the opposing lawyer and an absolute BASTARD. I won, but will never forget or forgive his strategies and behaviors. He will lie, cheat, and steal to win. He is above nothing! His “coming to Northfield” to support
Ray sent me running to Kevin.
My girls, home for Christmas, had only good things to
say about Kevin—and that says much as they are none
too positive about Northfield HS.
Congratulations Kevin!